Climate Change Is Reshaping Which Ants Win in America
A new study published in the journal Oikos this March has some sobering news for anyone who cares about native ants in the United States: climate change is stacking the deck in favor of invasive species, and the numbers are striking.
What the Research Found
Researchers Liu, Ollier, and Bertelsmeier modeled the current and projected future ranges of 477 ant species across North America, including 396 native species and 81 non-native ones. Using species distribution models and two future climate scenarios, they estimated where those ants could realistically survive by 2050.
The results were lopsided. Between 81.5% and 84% of alien ant species are projected to expand their ranges under warming conditions. For native ants, the picture is the opposite: between 57% and 63% of native species are expected to lose ground, with their suitable habitat shrinking rather than growing.
In short, the ants that don't belong here are set to gain the most from a warming climate, while the ones that do belong here are squeezed out.
Why Invasive Ants Have the Advantage
The explanation comes down to ecological flexibility. Invasive ant species tend to already occupy broader climatic niches, meaning they can tolerate a wider range of temperatures and precipitation levels. Native species, having evolved in specific local conditions over long timescales, are often more narrowly adapted.
As temperatures rise and precipitation patterns shift, invasive ants can track those changes and colonize newly suitable habitat. Native species may find their preferred conditions disappearing faster than they can relocate.
The researchers also note that this creates a compounding problem: the two biggest threats to biodiversity, climate change and biological invasions, are not just running in parallel. They are reinforcing each other.
What This Means for US Ant Keepers
If you keep ants, this research is worth thinking about on two levels.
First, the native species you might be collecting on nuptial flight days, your Camponotus pennsylvanicus, your Pogonomyrmex barbatus, your Formica colonies, may become harder to find in parts of their current range over the coming decades. Habitat loss driven by climate pressure is a real concern for wild populations.
Second, the spread of species like the Asian needle ant (Brachyponera chinensis), which has already reached 22 states as of 2026, is likely to continue accelerating as conditions warm. Invasive ants displace native species not just through direct competition but by altering the local ecology entire native colonies depend on.
The study is a reminder that the ants in your formicariums represent something genuinely worth preserving. Keeping and breeding native US species responsibly isn't just a hobby, it's a small but real way to stay connected to ant biodiversity that faces real pressure in the wild.
Sources
Liu, T., Ollier, S. and Bertelsmeier, C., 2026. Greater future range expansions in alien than native ant species. Oikos, e12169.
